Why I'm shorting Western Union after Q4 Earnings

Western Union is a financial services company that specializes in the transfer of money.

When I was a kid, Western Union was the place mi mama would take me on her errand run.

She would send money to relatives in Ecuador through Western Union wire transfers.

Sometimes the transfer didn't occur or a relative was "shaken down" by someone controlling those transfers. There was always a toll man in some fashion. Always wanting their cut.

I distinctly remember my mother being upset at the wait time and fees for a cousin who would be dying soon (we suspect cancer).

As you can imagine, the fees were awful and the service was difficult.

Today Western Union is a dying business that is losing millions of customers by the week.

How? Why?

Krypto baby. It's here and the guy mowing your lawn is transferring his paycheck via ehthereum or bitecoin or Monero or polygon.

The list is immense and also not necessarily difficult to execute now.

So why after Q4?

Western Union stock shows a beta of 0.99, so going into the holiday season we will see a price increase.

The ETF exposure of Western Union is fairly high.

This tells me that people have western union on their balance sheets as a safe bet.

"Immigrants will always need to send money"

I believe Q4 earnings will be bad but this will be eclipsed by the bullish market.

Q1 earnings will be so abysmal that even boomers will drop Western Union.

This is my big short and I am emotionally invested.