2025 Predictions - January

Oscar noms in just two weeks! What a fun season this has been. I love how open every category feels right now and I hope we can hold that unpredictability until the end. The movies may not all be strong but this has been a race to remember.

Best Picture

  1. The Brutalist (GG, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
  2. Emilia Perez (GG*, SAG)
  3. Anora (CCA, WGA)
  4. The Substance
  5. Conclave
  6. Wicked
  7. A Complete Unknown
  8. Dune 2
  9. Nickel Boys (WGA*)
  10. Sing Sing
  11. A Real Pain
  12. September 5

I think its come down to just these 12. Id be shocked if anything else picks up a late surge unless there's a Riseborough situation beginning to brew for something like A Different Man or Thelma. But right now I dont see it.

Last month I had Sing Sing at 1 and this month its at 10. I always thought A24's release of the film was stupid but I figured they had a plan. Now I think they just bombed it. I don't see it getting longlisted for anything at BAFTA outside of Domingo, and I dont think Maclin is getting in at SAG anymore. Should we even think its getting the Oscar nom for screenplay? It's possible its only precursor nom will be CCA. Im keeping it in screenplay for now but Im worried. Spoilers for song and score but I have Sing Sing showing up in both categories, but can I really predict an Actor, Song, Score, and Picture package? It feels weak, and Score and Song are too unpredictable to rely on

With all that said... I think theres a world where Sing Sing still wins BP. It would be insane but it could happen. For me to consider it though it would need to get these 3 nominations over the next week: a PGA nom, a SAG Ensemble nom, and a BAFTA screenplay nom. If it misses one then its winning chances are dead. Theyre probably dead now anyway

I have moved The Brutalist to number one because I currently believe its taking at least Director, Actor, Cinematography, and Score. I expect it to gain a ton of momentum once it hits its wide release. I dont feel super confident but I feel fine

I have Emilia Perez at 2. Now while I like the movie a lot I pray to god it doesnt win best picture. Not just because the discourse will be insane but because I dont think the movie lands the plane properly and has no place representing the year in film because of it. I like the movie in spite of it being bad. Anyways the industry seems to just love this and I think it has a good shot winning Globe M/C, SAG, PGA, and maybe even DGA.

Anora at 3 and I dont think I have anything to say about it that hasnt been said to death already. Also I want to remind everyone that even though I havent been predicting Anora to win for months, I had it at number one to win back in MARCH, so if it wins BP I am still going to brag about it

I have The Substance at 4 and I think I can finally stop acting like I dont think The Substance is a WIN contender. I think its been clear for a few months now that the passion for it is loud and strong with all of critics, industry, cinephiles, and audiences. Somehow this movie is working with nearly every group.

Conclave and Wicked could win major precursors but I cant see either actually WIN the Oscar.

A Complete Unknown is a safe nominee.

8-12 I could see anything happen. I feel pretty good about Dune still but maybe it just slips out somehow. I think Ross is a LOCK for director so I feel obliged to keep his film in BP, but its divisive nature and late release could hurt it. I know it's taking in lots of critic prizes but I cant help but feel like the buzz has died a little for it. I might take it out of Picture but leave Ross in director, though I'll feel very unsure about it. Ive said enough about Sing Sing. A Real Pain is strong in 2 ATL categories but I dont think its a lot of peoples favorite MOVIE of the year. Its really simple and small and I feel like the other fringe contenders are much more ambitious or in Sing Sing's case more heartwarming. I have September 5 at 12 but I struggle to consider it a threat when its only chances at noms are screenplay and editing, and I feel like you shouldnt look at an editing nom as part of a films essential package but instead as a bonus nom it can pick up. I guess it could be this years Picture/Screenplay nominee but I doubt it

Best Director

  1. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist (GG, CCA, BAFTA, DGA)
  2. Jaques Audiard - Emilia Perez
  3. RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys
  4. Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
  5. Sean Baker - Anora
  6. Edward Berger - Conclave
  7. Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine as Light
  8. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
  9. Mohammad Rasoulof - TSOSF

From last month Ive dropped Villeneueve and put back Audiard. I thought Villeneueve had a chance due to being the only contender thats been previously nominated but I think that Globe snub killed him since I dont see him getting DGA or BAFTA nominated again. I dont know why I took out Audiard, especially since I'm not even biased against the film! I wonder if some directors will be more critical of the ending and that'll keep him out but hes probably just safe.

Corbet is winning because I dont know who else. I think the only other contender who could get people excited is Fargeat, but I dont think any group is cool enough to give her the award.

I have Baker at 5 and Im sure that raises eyebrows for a lot of you. I know he has one of the strongest films but when you look at the 4 films above him I think its clear his film is the least "ambitious". I know I have been vocal about my dislike and disappointment with Anora but I will be so so bummed if Baker gets snubbed here. Anora isnt my movie but Baker is still my guy. I think if there was one more strong director-y movie in BP he'd be at risk, but he's probably fine. I dont see a world where he wins.

Best Actress

  1. Demi Moore - The Substance (GG*, BAFTA, SAG)
  2. Mikey Madison - Anora (CC)
  3. Angelina Jolie - Maria (GG)
  4. Karla Sofia Gascon - Emilia Perez
  5. Nicole Kidman - Babygirl
  6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
  7. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
  8. Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
  9. Kate Winslet - Lee
  10. Amy Adams - Nightbitch

I'm so fucking convinced that Demi Moore is winning this. I feel more and more confident every single day. Ive had Moore at 1 since November 3rd according to my Award Expert but I know I wouldve been predicting her even earlier if I wasn't scared of getting flamed on here. I know she may not be everyone's favorite performance of the year but this is the one that I feel has gotten people talking the most. If its a race between Moore and Madison then I HAVE to go with the one whos an industry vet, in the transformative role caked in makeup, and has the role of a lifetime perfect for her. The narrative is too good and I don't think Madison is strong enough to overcome it. I know Madison is the critic leader but Moore is doing even better with noms (I think, please correct me if I'm wrong!) and Moore has even won a comical amount of runner-up prizes. Moore is strong with critics even if Madison or Jean-Baptiste are just a little stronger. I think the industry is going to go hard for her.

The only person I think is a "lock" is Jolie. Even Madison I think could somehow miss SAG and then the Oscar, but I just be saying shit. I have been struggling so much with those final 2 slots and my 4-7 changes almost every day. I currently have Gascon at 4 but I cant help but feel like shes going to be our heartbreaking snub on nominations morning. I finally saw Babygirl and while I LOVED it and loved Kidman in it I feel like I could rationalize a snub for her, but her being Nicole Kidman makes me feel like shes in.

So right now my two major snubs are Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Cynthia Erivo. I feel kinda confident that Erivo will miss even though I currently expect her to hit every precursor. With a race so tight I think the part one aspect does enough to draw votes away and every single vote counts. I think the Margot Robbie comparisons to last year arent exact but I do think it is tougher for Erivo to get in for a fantasy blockbuster. One thing Erivo has over Robbie is that shes doing noticeably more dramatic work and of course singing, but I don't know if it'll be enough. For MJB, I just think the competition is too stiff and her film wont be seen enough. She would be the lone nominee for her film (unless screenplay somehow happens) and lets face it: shes not famous and connected like Nicole Kidman is.

Best Actor

  1. Adrien Brody - The Brutalist (GG, CCA, BAFTA)
  2. Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown (SAG)
  3. Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
  4. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
  5. Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
  6. Daniel Craig - Queer
  7. Sebastian Stan - A Different Man (GG*)
  8. Jesse Eisenberg - A Real Pain
  9. Hugh Grant - Heretic

I havent seen either The Brutalist or ACU yet but to me it sounds like Brody is too undeniable to lose the Oscar, but I think Chalamet is so likable he will win SAG and create the illusion of a race for us all to get excited about. Maybe Im getting ahead of myself and Brody just sweeps. I think Chalamet is in a great position though considering Austin Butler was his years runner up and he was a nobody at the time.

I had John David Washington at 5 last month but hes now off my shortlist entirely. The buzz for that film is pretty dead

I dont think I had Stan in my predicitons pre-Election but he has seemed to find his way in there since. I know were all feeling more confident about Craig but hes done exactly as well as we all expected him to do so far anyway. If he misses SAG, his spot is open. I expect the international voters will pull Stan in and I do think some people will see it as a protest vote. I know the Stan support doesnt look super clear right now but give these members an anonymous ballot and I believe they will show up for him. I also think Stan is going to win the comedy globe and thatll give him a boost!

Supporting Actress

  1. Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez (GG, BAFTA)
  2. Ariana Grande - Wicked (CCA, SAG)
  3. Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
  4. Margaret Qualley - The Substance
  5. Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
  6. Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson
  7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys
  8. Selena Gomez - Emilia Perez

I have no idea who will be winning this. The race is between Saldana and Grande right now but I think Qualley and Rossellini are threats to win at BAFTA. Any winner feels weird. Saldana makes the most sense but it still pisses me off that shes in this category. i think Grande would be a good winner but I think it would be really funny if she wins SAG and everyone on this sub convinces themselves shes winning and then she doesn't take the Oscar.

Supporting Actor

  1. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist (BAFTA)
  2. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain (GG, CCA, SAG)
  3. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
  4. Denzel Washington - Gladiator II
  5. Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
  6. Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing
  7. Yura Borisov - Anora
  8. Jonathan Bailey - Wicked
  9. Stanley Tucci - Conclave

Im expecting Pearce as the "shocker" win of the night after Culkin nearly sweeps the season. I dont think anyone can convince me Borisov is getting nominated. He is fantastic in the film but I dont think its real. I also feel like Maclin is dead because A24 fucked up and he wont get in at SAG and then he wont get in at the Oscar. The Globes showed us international voters care about The Apprentice and Jeremy Strong is great in the film and does a lot more than his alternatives so I'm slotting him, although I dont feel great about it.

I've gotta say this is the only acting category I dont care about at all

Original Screenplay

  1. Anora
  2. The Substance
  3. The Brutalist
  4. A Real Pain
  5. September 5
  6. Hard Truths
  7. Challengers
  8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
  9. All We Imagine as Light

This still feels like Bakers to win especially since he's looking good for that CCA+WGA win combo that seems to be so strong in this category. I think The Substance is rising a lot and this would be the most likely place to award it (though I think it should be a director contender before screenplay but whatever) but I don't think any film is stopping Baker's momentum this year. I am so happy The Academy will be retroactively awarding Baker for his Red Rocket screenplay

Adapted Screenplay

  1. Emilia Perez (BAFTA)
  2. Nickel Boys (WGA)
  3. Conclave (CCA)
  4. Sing Sing
  5. Dune 2
  6. I'm Still Here
  7. Wicked
  8. The Piano Lesson
  9. Nosferatu
  10. A Complete Unknown

Im going to go against the grain here and say Conclave DOESNT win screenplay. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the last time a screenplay winner came from someone who didn't direct the movie was Call Me By Your Name, and that was the ONLY best picture nominee in the category. I have a hard time predicting Conclave since Berger didnt write it and all 4 of my other nominees were at least cowritten by their director. I'm going with Emila Perez because it would probably be the worst winner lol

International Feature

  1. Emilia Perez
  2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
  3. I'm Still Here
  4. Vermiglio
  5. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
  6. Flow
  7. Kneecap
  8. Universal Language
  9. The Girl with the Needle
  10. Dahomey

Rooting for Flow!

Documentary Feature

  1. Sugarcane
  2. Daughters
  3. Black Box Diaries
  4. Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
  5. Dahomey
  6. No Other Land
  7. Will & Harper
  8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
  9. Union
  10. The Bibi Files

I have No Other Land out because the shortlist didnt have any major snubs so I feel obligated to predict one. It would be a pretty bad mistake if they dont nominate it but the doc branch is unpredictable.

Animated Feature

I'm not even going to type them, you know the 5. Wild Robot winning until proven otherwise

Cinematography

  1. The Brutalist
  2. Nickel Boys
  3. Maria
  4. Nosferatu
  5. Emilia Perez
  6. The Girl with the Needle
  7. Dune 2
  8. Conclave

Does anyone know if Grand Tour is eligble this year? I'm going to guess not because I dont see anyone predicting it but its in black and white and its shot by Mukdeeprom! So if its eligble I'm going to predict it

Editing

  1. Conclave
  2. The Brutalist
  3. Anora
  4. Emilia Perez
  5. The Substance
  6. Challengers
  7. Dune 2
  8. Sepetember 5
  9. Nickel Boys
  10. Wicked

I dont think Conclave will win but I think its most likely to be nominated. I have no idea for this race. Maybe I should move The Substance to 1

Production Design

  1. Wicked
  2. Dune 2
  3. Gladiator 2
  4. The Brutalist
  5. Nosferatu
  6. Conclave
  7. Blitz
  8. Maria
  9. Emilia Perez
  10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Costume Design

  1. Wicked
  2. Gladiaor 2
  3. Dune 2
  4. Maria
  5. Nosferatu
  6. Emilia Perez
  7. The Brutalist
  8. Beetleuice Beetlejuice

Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. The Substance
  2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
  3. A Different Man
  4. Nosferatu
  5. Waltzing with Brando
  6. Wicked
  7. The Apprentice
  8. Emilia Perez
  9. Dune 2
  10. Maria

I cant predict Dune after it BLANKED at the makeup guild. I feel I should move in one of my 6-8 but I dont know what to put in.

Visual Effects

  1. Dune 2
  2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
  3. Gladiator II
  4. Alien: Romulus
  5. Deadpool & Wolverine
  6. Mufasa
  7. Wicked
  8. Better Man
  9. Civil War
  10. Twisters

no one can convince me Better Man is getting this nomination. All the monkey love is gonna go to Planet of the Apes

Sound

  1. Wicked
  2. Dune 2
  3. Emilia Perez
  4. A Complete Unknown
  5. Alien: Romulus
  6. Gladiator 2
  7. Blitz

Maybe we should all predict Emilia Perez to win sound/editing

Score

  1. The Brutalist
  2. Conclave
  3. Emilia Perez
  4. Wicked
  5. Sing Sing
  6. Challengers
  7. The Room Next Door
  8. Blitz
  9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
  10. The Wild Robot

I hope Babygirl gets nominated! I think Wicked will get in and its obvious that it will and yet everyone will still act shocked when it inevitably happens

Song

  1. Diane Warren
  2. El Mal - Emilia Perez
  3. Mi Camino - Emilia Perez
  4. Like a Bird - Sing Sing
  5. Harper and Will Go West - Will & Harper
  6. Kiss the Sky
  7. Compress/Repress
  8. Elton John

Since the voters all watch the clips from the films that the songs play in I feel very confident about the Sing Sing song getting in. I know the writer is on this sub so I'm sorry if Im getting your hopes up man. Everyone hates this branch and thinks they have bad taste so dont take it personal if you miss. I'm rooting for you. We all are

I dont care about the shorts so I won’t predict them but Don Hertzfeldt is winning Animated Short and I will cheer when he does. Everyone should watch It’s Such a Beautiful Day if you haven’t yet

See yall in 2 weeks when I do my final predictions!