RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 1055 to 1057 of the War - Suriyakmaps
Pictures 1 to 3 are from Day 1055 (Monday 13 January), pictures 4 to 7 are from Day 1056 Tuesday 14 January), and pictures 8 to 13 are from Day 1057 (Wednesday 15 January).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A reminder that these maps are confirming updates from previous days (i.e. 12 to 48 hours delayed from each day).
Live map can be found here.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Picture 1: No Advance, expansion of greyzone.
Not starting in Kursk for the first time in a while, we instead head to the Myrnohrad-Kostyantynivka Highway area, following closely after the previous update. From multiple different reports, Suriyak has made a correction regarding control over the interchange, with neither side confirmed to be present. Russian troops are definitely in the area, however the very thin advance Suriyak showed last time was complicated by reports that those Russian troops hadn’t actually consolidated positions, and were either driven back, or withdrew to the positions they did take further south.
Ukraine also isn’t confirmed to be in the area either, so for now Suriyak has left it in the greyzone until more information comes out about what the Russian soldiers in this area are doing.
Picture 2: Top Left Advance = 3.48km2, Upper Left Advance = 0.75km2, Middle Advance = 1.43km2
On the Pokrovsk front, starting on the west side, Russian assault groups have moved on from their positions slightly south of the highway, capturing it as well as a 2km long stretch of the railway line. This gives Russia physical control of the highway and railway, prevent their use by Ukraine to rotate troops from Pokrovsk to the fighting further southwest, and vice versa. Given the Russians have wedged themselves between Udachne and Kotlyne, they can choose to attack either settlement next to set up a forward base for their continued operations in this area. Both settlements are viable options, with the village of Kotlyne being split on either side of the railway (i.e. positions on both sides), and a mine complex they can capture to house troops, whilst the town of Udachne has many buildings and a number of warehouses, and is also close to the large coking coal mine to the north. As a footnote, as part of this advance Russia also moved one field further west of the chalk quarry, and continues to head west to the north of Uspenivka.
To the east, Russia captured the remainder of Pishchane, after Ukraine pulled out the previous day, confirming full control of the village. Russian recon troops are already moving north and probing into Zvirove, the next Russian target.
Moving southeast, Russia captured the remainder of Zelene, which as I mentioned last update we were just waiting for confirmation they had cleared the last few houses. Russia will still have to capture the trench network on the north side of Zelene before they can consider the village secure, although Ukraine may decide to withdraw from it early to take up safer positions in Novoukrainka.
Picture 3: Far Top Left Advance = 0.38km2, Top Left Advance = 0.30km2, Middle Advance = 0.24km2, Lower Advance = 1.29km2, Bottom Advance = 6.14km2
Moving south of the previous picture, into the west side of the Selydove and Pokrovsk fronts. In Yasenove, Russian assault groups made further progress in the village, capturing the central section and one of the treelines to the south. Ukraine still has some positions in the western 1/3 of the settlement, as well as the warehouses on the north side. Separate to this, another Russian assault group began to advance down the treeline to the north, heading for those warehouses. Even if Ukraine can hold the western side of Yasenove, this northern push will eventually flank them from behind and cut off their connection to Novoandriivka, so Ukraine will likely retreat to that village before this happens.
To the south, Russia made a small advance south of Slovyanka, as they begin to move into the fields in that area.
Around Shevchenko, Russian cleared and captured the fields between the village and the Vovcha River, which weren’t being contested by Ukraine. They’ve also continued their advance west, and have reached the edge of the large trench network protecting eastern Andriivka (you can see it on this map slightly west of the advance). However, at the same time as this, Ukraine launched a small counterattack towards Shevchenko, from their long trench network to the northwest of the village. Whilst there were some claims of reaching the centre of the village, a more realistic assessment showed Ukraine had recaptured a chunk of the fields and part of the forest area that they had lost previous, but couldn’t break into the Shevchenko. This counterattack will certainly be short lived, as Ukraine just doesn’t have the troops to sustain a push into Shevchenko (specifically infantry).
Picture 4: Advance = 0.37km2
In Chasiv Yar, whilst battles rage in the centre of the town, a separate Russian forces has begun to push south from the Novy district, capturing the remaining houses, and entering the forest area. As a refresher, that part of the Novy district has sat in the greyzone for many months at this point, as Ukrainian dugouts and trenches in the forest area meant Russia couldn’t hold those houses, but Ukraine also couldn’t push out of the forest to capture them as that area is too exposed and they would be driven out by drones and artillery.
With Russia now moving infantry into the forest area to clear it out, Ukraine may lose one of its strongest positions they still have left in Chasiv Yar, which has held for many months now. There are numerous dugouts, small trenchers, and even a large bunker complex (that Russia has dropped several Iskanders on in the past) in that forest area, so it will not be easy for Russia to push Ukraine out. I have seen some sources claim the forest area is actually encircled, but this does not correspond with reality.
Picture 5: Top Advance = 0.51km2, Middle Left Advance = 0.35km2, Bottom Left Advance = 2.26km2
Following on from picture 2, starting with the north side, the first Russian recon troops have entered Zvirove, using the adjacent treelines to get to the first houses. For now their only obstacle is Ukrainian drones, as their troops look to be holding the village from closer to the centre.
To the southwest, the first Russian assault group has entered Uspenivka, taking up positions in the easternmost street. Clashes are currently occurring as Ukraine’s garrison tries to push them out.
Further south, Russia has captured several fields to the east of Nadiivka, as the move to surround the village from the north side. Half of Nadiivka sits on the southern side of a stream, so this northern advance will only help to capture the north side, rather than the whole settlement.
Picture 6: Advance = 0.84km2
Back to the Kurakhove front, this time the southern side. Russian forces have continued advancing west after their capture of Yantarne 2 days prior, capturing several treelines and small dugouts slightly north of the Sukhi Yaly River. Part of this advance can be seen here, with Russian troops trying to flush out Ukrainian infantry from the dugouts.
Picture 7: Advance = 1.37km2
On the Kupyansk front, over the past few days Russia re-entered Kolisnykivka, recapturing a little less than half the village. Ukraine will likely counterattack again here, not wanting to lose their progress from a few weeks ago, so the back and forth over this village will continue for a while longer.
Picture 8: Advance = 1.64km2
On the Oskil River front, over the past week Russia has started slowly pushing out of Makiivka, moving north to take over a few treelines and trenches adjacent to the village. Russia is gradually becoming more active in this area, after months of minimal movement, but its currently still quite a low number of troops and only small pushes.
Picture 9: Top Left Advance = 0.08km2, Top Middle Advance = 0.03km2
In Toretsk, Russian forces made a little more progress in clearing the town, capturing the last of the warehouses on the northwestern side, as well as advancing slightly to the north and entering the Krymske mine complex. Ukraine still has a decent garrison in the mine, which they continue to try reinforce, but its only really a delaying action, as they will eventually lose their positions or be forced to retreat.
Picture 10: Far Left Advance = 3.55km2, Middle Left Advance = 0.40km2
Following on from picture 1, more information came out regarding the events to the north of Vozdvyzhenka. The Russian forces in this area did advance, not towards the highway interchange, but taking over the fields and 2 of the large trench networks in the same area. Theres still more trench networks in this area, to the northwest of this advance, but Russia should be able to clear them on the way to Vodyane Druhe. Russia is probably choosing to expand its control in this area before it tries to physically occupy the highway interchange, so that the risk of counterattacks is lower.
Adjacent to this, on the other side of the Bychok River, Russia advanced slightly further north, reaching the outskirts of Baranivka. This isn’t actually a settlement, as the area was abandoned long before the war, but the small forest remains. Due to the lack of buildings, clearing this area will be quite straightforward for Russia, although it also means less cover from drones and artillery.
Picture 11: Top Left Advance = 1.00km2, Top Right Advance = 1.07km2, Upper Left Advance = 0.17km2, Middle Left Advance = 0.29km2, Bottom Left Advance = 0.13km2
Following on from Pictures 2 and 5, starting with the north side again, we have an answer to the question of whether Russia would attack Udachne or Kotlyne, with the answer being both at the same time. Russia has sent assault groups to attack both settlements, with clashes currently occurring on the eastern side of Udachne, whilst in Kotlyne, Russia was able to drive back the defenders and capture the entire southern side of the village. It’ll be very difficult for Ukraine to hold Kotlyne, as the tree along the railway line provide Russian infantry excellent cover to advance to and enter both the first northern street, as well as the small mine complex. Udachne should fair slightly better, however depending on Ukraine’s garrison size, they may have issues containing the Russian advance (due to the lack of infantry to actually man the buildings).
On a related note, Ukraine has allegedly begun to blow up some of the buildings in the coking coal mine north of Udachne, likely to sabotage the facility to reduce its usefulness for Russia. This does not exactly bode well for Ukraine’s own assessment of how long they can hold Udachne and Kotlyne.
To the south, Russia made a small advance north of the Solona River, capturing a few houses and a farm. At the same time, Ukraine was successfully able to drive out the first Russian assault group that entered Uspenivka, and has reestablished control of the easternmost street. Russia will certainly try to attack Uspenivka again, but might decide to flank the village from the north first to improve their chance. The northern side of the Solona, where Russia advanced, sits higher than Uspenivka, so a Russian ATGM position a bit further west of their current positions could fire on Ukrainian vehicles and supplies trying to reinforce their garrison.
To the south, Russian troops pushed slightly further south along the same treeline previously mentioned, reaching the warehouses on the northern side of Yasenove. Clashes still continue in the centre of the village, but it looks like Ukraine will retreat back to Novoandriivka soon.
Picture 12: Top Left Advance = 6.39km2, Middle Advance = 3.55km2, Bottom Left Advance = 0.95km2, Bottom Middle Advance = 4.55km2
Following on from pictures 3 and 6, in Shevchenko, Russia managed to stop the Ukrainian counterattack, and has recaptured the area that they took the day before. Russian troops did not stop there, advancing west of Shevchenko and Petropavlivka, capturing multiple fields, treelines and the eastern side of the long Ukrainian trench network (see picture below). The battle for Andriivka will be determined by this long trench network, as its capture will allow Russia to advance along the northern side of the settlement with ample cover, and use its bunkers and firing points, all facing south, to hit Ukrainian positions in the town. Russia also hit the bridge between Andriivka and Kostyantynopil with FABs, to try stop it being used to supply the former.
To the southeast, Russia captured the dump on the western side of Kurakhove, which was not contested by Ukraine. There are also initial reports that an assault on Dachne will begin soon.
To the south, Russia captured the wastewater treatment plant, as well as pushing further west along the north side of the Sukhi Yaly River. Many of the fields to the north will likely fall to Russia soon, as there are few defences in this area, other than around Dachne and Ulakly.
Picture 13: Advance = 0.35km2
On the Velyka Novosilka front, the first Russian assault group entered Vremivka, taking over the warehouses and houses on the southwestern side. As I mentioned last post, with Russia moving into Vremivka, Ukraine needs to leave the town now, as their exit route is rapidly closing, and trying to cross the river to the north is extremely dangerous and would lead to many unnecessary casualties. Although as we’ve seen time and again, Ukrainian command will wait until the last minute to give the order.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Russian Advance (Gross) = 42.52km2
Total Ukrainian Advance (Gross) = 1.58km2
For those that asked, Advances excluding Kursk:
Total Russian Advance (Gross) = 42.52km2
Total Ukrainian Advance (Gross) = 1.58km2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Additional Comments:
· Ukraine’s control of Kursk currently sits at 438.74km2. Ukraine’s maximum control in Kursk was approximately 930km2, short of their initial claim of 1000km2, and well below their revised claim of 1300km2.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tip page, if you wish to support/show appreciation for my work.