The Mathematical Most Likely Placements for Season 7

I decided to map out the most likely placements for the next season based on trajectory of past placements. Full method below.

I think it would make for a pretty interesting and not unplausible series, although we’re predicting all-time lows for some heavy hitters – looks like Joel’s set for a big fall.

Disclaimer: this math is pretty sketchy and is in no way meant to be an accurate representation or prediction of potential future seasons.

Method

  1. Gathering data

I started by compiling the season numbers and placements (as fractions) into x,y values.

eg. for Jimmy – (1, 14/14) (2, 17/17) (3, 14/14) (4, 14/14) (5, 16/17) (6, 12/18)

  1. Converting to formula

I then used an online tool to convert these values into formulas.

eg for Jimmy – y=x5/3060 + x4/408 - x3/306 - (5 x2)/408 + (101 x)/3060 + 50/51

  1. Extrapolating for season 7

I subbed y=7 into each formula to determine the 100% mathematically accurate most likely placement for each participant.

These ranged from Etho placing -7.88 to Bdubs placing 10.35.

  1. Compiling the results

Obviously these did not fall neatly into place so I ranked them from lowest predicted placement to highest predicted placement.

I had a lot of fun making this. If anyone wants the full list of formulas or most likely placements I’m happy to DM them to you or put them in the comments. I think it’s all very interesting but I can be a bit of a number gremlin.

I decided to map out the most likely placements for the next season based on trajectory of past placements. Full method below.

I think it would make for a pretty interesting and not unplausible series, although we’re predicting all-time lows for some heavy hitters – looks like Joel’s set for a big fall.

Disclaimer: this math is pretty sketchy and is in no way meant to be an accurate representation or prediction of potential future seasons.

Method

  1. Gathering data

I started by compiling the season numbers and placements (as fractions) into x,y values.

eg. for Jimmy – (1, 14/14) (2, 17/17) (3, 14/14) (4, 14/14) (5, 16/17) (6, 12/18)

  1. Converting to formula

I then used an online tool to convert these values into formulas.

eg for Jimmy – y=x5/3060 + x4/408 - x3/306 - (5 x2)/408 + (101 x)/3060 + 50/51

  1. Extrapolating for season 7

I subbed y=7 into each formula to determine the 100% mathematically accurate most likely placement for each participant.

These ranged from Etho placing -7.88 to Bdubs placing 10.35.

  1. Compiling the results

Obviously these did not fall neatly into place so I ranked them from lowest predicted placement to highest predicted placement.

I had a lot of fun making this. If anyone wants the full list of formulas or most likely placements I’m happy to DM them to you or put them in the comments. I think it’s all very interesting but I can be a bit of a number gremlin.