Canadian cannabis retail sales +6% YoY in November

From Bank of America Global Research:

"November Canadian cannabis retail sales +0.5% MoM

This morning Statistics Canada (StatCan) released cannabis retail sales for November 2024, indicating cannabis sales on a reported basis rose +5.6% YoY (the strongest % month since December 2023) and +0.5% MoM and +3.9% MoM (day adjusted) to C$452.8mn. Note October sales were restated downward to $450.5mn from $456.3mn. TTM sales +0.9% YoY to C$5.185bn.

After 10 months of declines, Ontario sales finally rise YoY

Canadian cannabis sales climbed C$23.9mn YoY, aided by sales growth in Ontario (+3.9% YoY, +C$3.8mn), British Columbia (+7.2%, +C$4.9mn), and Alberta (+18.2%, +C$5.7mn). MoM sales growth was notable in Saskatchewan (+11.6%), British Columbia (+5.7%) and Manitoba (+2.8%) despite on less calendar day in November vs. October. With a more than sufficient store count of 3,722 as of September, challenges include too many producers, price promotional activity, illicit trade, high taxation, stores/licensed producers facing financial challenges and inflationary pressures on most consumer goods.

December CPI signifying pricing stabilization MoM

StatCan released Cannabis CPI pricing of -1.0% YoY and flat MoM and slightly improved from the prior month’s trends. This suggests some ongoing pricing stabilization MoM but still some weakness YoY, particularly in the Yukon (-23%). On recent earnings results calls, producers have noted shortages of quality flower as increased cannabis flower volumes are being exported to newly opened medical markets and/or financially strapped growers drop out of the market. Ultimately these shortages should help price stabilization."